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Entries Tagged as 'government'

Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities

August 13th, 2015 · 4 Comments

A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think. The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row!  These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses. As we are entering the second half of 2015, financial panic is occurring globally. Currently, this tremendous financial devastation is happening throughout the world.  Stock prices are crashing in China, Europe and soon I feel the United States. Puerto Rico has now defaulted on their debts. Quantitative Easing has been masking the symptom of this endemic disease. The Greek Banks are still frozen and will continue to stay this way; however, the mainstream media is not reporting on this current situation in Greece. There is a limit on weekly withdrawals of 420 Euro per (around US $455).

The future’s not bright for the Australian Economy

July 27th, 2015 · 11 Comments

Some years ago when I wrote that it was only a matter of time before economic growth in China slowed and commodities prices fell, the mainstream media in Australia at that time were obsessed with the commodities super cycle and the Chinese “miracle” economy. However now there is widespread acceptance that the commodities boom is over and that the Chinese economy isn’t bulletproof after all. However it now seems difficult for many to accept that as a consequence of those two realities that the Australian Economy is poised for some years limited growth…at best.

The ASX 200 – On a Road to Nowhere

May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments

This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.

Shorting the Australian Stock Market, Oil & Soft Commodities

March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments

So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) Charts Review – August 2014

August 25th, 2014 · 23 Comments

Over the last 6 months despite signs the Australian economy is heading for tougher times, the Australian stock market has continued to edge higher despite the occasional minor correction along the way. Currently the S&P/ASX 200 is just above 5600 and if it’s going to make a run towards 6000 before the end of the year, then now seems the time for this to happen.  But maybe stocks are poised to slip back again and around 5600 is as good as it will get for the S&P/ASX 200 for 2014?

The End of the Commodities Boom

July 11th, 2014 · 5 Comments

Unlike a few years ago, mining company CEO’s these days are somewhat more cautious about the outlook for commodities and have shifted from talking about the commodities super-cycle to commenting about the need to reduce operational costs and scale back investment. Yes the commodities super-cycle or boom is over despite many experts saying it would run for decades.

The Australian Economy & ASX All Ordinaries Index Review: June 2014

June 6th, 2014 · 6 Comments

So far the Australian economy has held up quite strongly in 2014 and has outperformed many other developed economies since the GFC caused havoc across global markets in 2008-2009. Belatedly the Australian stock market has also shown post GFC bullish signs having rallied strongly from a low last year to up around 5500 this year. So all is going well right? Well not really, and if we scratch under the surface there are some very worrying trends which could cause years of strife for the Australian economy and the Australian stock market.

The 2014 Federal Budget, Smokin’ Joe & Political Chaos

May 28th, 2014 · 15 Comments

It’s has taken me a while to put some thoughts down about the 2104 Australian Federal Budget simply because I am suffering from budget fatigue. Maybe the rot set in when Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan were prancing around during the GFC talking about a national economic emergency. Or perhaps it was just years of Swan delivering budgets which had little connection with reality, with himself and Ken Henry both off in some parallel universe. In any case, when Tony Abbott and Smokin’ Joe Hockey rolled out the budget emergency theme the fatigue really set in.

ASX Charts Review: SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund (STW)

April 25th, 2014 · 10 Comments

The Australian stock market has had me baffled for the last couples of months as have the global markets in general. Despite the global economy still showing signs of weakness and the Chinese economy clearly slowing, the ASX All Ordinaries Index & ASX 200 Index both finished yesterday above 5500. So is the Australian market poised to head towards the 6000 level or is the old saying “sell in May then go away” going to ring true this year?

2013 Federal Election, All Ordinaries & Stock Market Outlook

September 8th, 2013 · 3 Comments

Well it’s over at last – the end of what has essentially been a three year election campaign in Australia and hopefully also the end of political instability; but that may be asking for too much. Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd will now get on with doing what he does best what he does best – sulk in a corner and the Australian stock market will probably not do a lot.

‘Happy go lucky’ Australia now adrift in Asia

August 23rd, 2013 · 3 Comments

Australians used to call themselves “the lucky country,” after the title of a 1960s’ best-seller saying how farming wealth had allowed Australia to create a stable, prosperous and fairly egalitarian society.  But today’s minerals wealth seems to have worked in reverse, to create a nation prone to quick fixes, whimsical political changes, flip-flop foreign policies and crazy economic strategies. From the sober lucky country we move to the feckless happy-go-lucky country.

While the Fed Parties, Gold & Oil Have Left the Building

June 18th, 2013 · 14 Comments

Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.

The 2013 Federal Budget, the Australian Economy and Gold

May 20th, 2013 · 83 Comments

For the last few years I have been warning that steps needed to be taken to prepare the Australian economy for when the commodities cycles would turn downwards. Back when I first started writing about this, it was almost considered treason to even suggest the mining boom may draw to a close. But these days even the RBA, Treasury and Wayne Swan are talking about the end of the commodities boom.

Gold versus S&P 500 – Where is the Value?

March 30th, 2013 · 30 Comments

This past week we received the final 4th Quarter GDP number which came in at 0.39%. The total 4th Quarter growth was terrible, plain and simple. Based on the performance in the equity markets that we have seen thus far in the 1st Quarter of 2013 investors would expect strong GDP growth. However, the only thing spurring stock market growth is the constant humming of Ben Bernanke’s printing press.

Japan’s leaders must see the need for sustaining a fiscal Big Bang

February 1st, 2013 · 4 Comments

With Japan’s stock market surging even before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled his plans for economic stimulus, we would have expected the usual anti-stimulus critics to be silent, at least for a while. But no. Already we hear the usual complaints — more printing of money, more public debt, more baramake (waste) and so on.

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