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Entries Tagged as 'inflation'

U.S. Market: What Is Widespread Excessive Optimism Indicating?

August 5th, 2017 · 18 Comments

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data. I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish!

U.S Market: A Top in Place for Oil & SPX?

March 29th, 2016 · 34 Comments

Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the FED Central Banks.  On March 10th, 2016, the ECB surprised the financial world by announcing a much stronger than expected stimulus package. One week later, the FED announced that it would not raise its’ short-term interest rates. It was only three months earlier, back in December of 2015, that they suggested that they would raise rates four times in 2016. It is now my belief, that they will not raise short- term interest ‘materially’ in 2016.

Has a New Gold Bull Market Cycle Started?

January 20th, 2014 · 15 Comments

2013 was one of the worst years for gold in a generation and the strangest part of it is that this loss came during a time in what should have been a banner year for gold. When the Fed launched its QE1 and QE2 programs, gold posted huge gains but with QE3, we only had a brief rally in late 2012, it’s been all downhill form there. The price of gold over the last year highlights just how much Europe has become a powerful driver behind gold vs. the US which has historically been the main mover.

‘Happy go lucky’ Australia now adrift in Asia

August 23rd, 2013 · 3 Comments

Australians used to call themselves “the lucky country,” after the title of a 1960s’ best-seller saying how farming wealth had allowed Australia to create a stable, prosperous and fairly egalitarian society.  But today’s minerals wealth seems to have worked in reverse, to create a nation prone to quick fixes, whimsical political changes, flip-flop foreign policies and crazy economic strategies. From the sober lucky country we move to the feckless happy-go-lucky country.

While the Fed Parties, Gold & Oil Have Left the Building

June 18th, 2013 · 14 Comments

Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.

Gold versus S&P 500 – Where is the Value?

March 30th, 2013 · 30 Comments

This past week we received the final 4th Quarter GDP number which came in at 0.39%. The total 4th Quarter growth was terrible, plain and simple. Based on the performance in the equity markets that we have seen thus far in the 1st Quarter of 2013 investors would expect strong GDP growth. However, the only thing spurring stock market growth is the constant humming of Ben Bernanke’s printing press.

Japan’s leaders must see the need for sustaining a fiscal Big Bang

February 1st, 2013 · 4 Comments

With Japan’s stock market surging even before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled his plans for economic stimulus, we would have expected the usual anti-stimulus critics to be silent, at least for a while. But no. Already we hear the usual complaints — more printing of money, more public debt, more baramake (waste) and so on.

Gold Standard To Be Reinstated Through The Back Door

September 10th, 2012 · 3 Comments

For the first time in over 30 years, talk of a return to the gold standard has become part of mainstream politics in the United States. Part of the official Republican policy adopted it at the recent Republican Convention and called for the commission to look at reestablishing the link between gold and the U.S. dollar. No doubt that plank was added to soothe supporters of Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Mongolia Rivals Australia to Supply China’s Resources Demand.

April 3rd, 2012 · 6 Comments

One of the world’s largest countries, sparsely populated, with extensive minerals in its remote hinterland deserts. Sound like Australia? This is Mongolia. On the cusp of an investment boom, fuelled by Chinese demand for resources and driven by Mongolia’s position just to the north of China’s industrial heartlands. Mongolia’s economy, like Australia’s, has defied the global gloom.

Japan’s economic morality play.

October 26th, 2011 · 3 Comments

World attention focuses on the problems of the Greek economy — no doubt with a large helping of schadenfreude added: There, but for the grace of God, go the rest of us is the thought.

The stampede towards global economic pessimism

September 13th, 2011 · 28 Comments

A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.

Recession watch and the Reserve Bank of Australia awakens

July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments

As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.

Swan’s lazy 2011 budget and Australian economic madness.

May 16th, 2011 · 6 Comments

On budget night Wayne Swan could have saved us all a lot of time by simply standing up and saying that his plan for the Australian economy was to simply sit back and hope the mining boom continued. As I have said for over a year now, Australian policy makers have set the economy up for a severe downturn if commodities prices slump and there is no Plan B.

The Global Economy, Baltic Dry Index, Gold and China

April 18th, 2011 · 16 Comments

We are almost through a third of 2011 and the mood across global markets appears to be decidedly downbeat.  The bullish voices of late 2010 have now faded and even the Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Treasurer are sounding cautious. But don’t be fooled by the talk that recent events have caused the global economy to face headwinds because the reality is that 2011 was always going to be a tough year.

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