Entries Tagged as 'interest rates'
March 30th, 2013 · 30 Comments
This past week we received the final 4th Quarter GDP number which came in at 0.39%. The total 4th Quarter growth was terrible, plain and simple. Based on the performance in the equity markets that we have seen thus far in the 1st Quarter of 2013 investors would expect strong GDP growth. However, the only thing spurring stock market growth is the constant humming of Ben Bernanke’s printing press.
March 15th, 2013 · 23 Comments
According to data released the other day, the Australian economy created around 70,000 positions recently which apparently is very good according to most economists. This is despite the fact that most of the jobs were part-time roles and I saw no breakdown regarding what type of jobs were created. That doesn’t seem to matter, once the media and assorted experts say it’s time to cheer then we are suppose to cheer.
February 12th, 2013 · 11 Comments
Recently every move upwards the stock market takes, no matter how slight, is greeted with almost ecstatic cries of joy from many analysts, finance journalists and assorted market watchers. It’s as if the ASX All Ordinaries was heading towards a new high and investors were being showered with money in the midst of a raging bull market that had no limits. Certainly there have been good returns of late for those investors who timed their entry into market almost perfectly, but for longer term investors it’s more of case of here we go again.
December 17th, 2012 · 16 Comments
As we approach the end of the year, the annual topic of a “Santa Rally” rears its head and although I don’t believe Santa can rally stocks, I do wonder if the current upwards trend of the Australian stock market can be sustained for much longer. Will the S&P/ASX 200 finish 2012 on a high, or will slide back and finish well below 4500.
December 7th, 2012 · 1 Comment
To pick a stock to write about this time I decided to set some high level criteria, do a search and then see what stock caught my eye. What I searched for was a stock with a market cap of over $100 million, a P/B ratio of less than 1 and a P/E ratio of less than 16. The stock that came out on the top of the list was Suncorp Group Limited.
November 12th, 2012 · 24 Comments
Finally it seems the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury have had to accept that the mining boom has peaked or is peaking, which is something I have been talking about on this site for some years. However the RBA, Treasury and Gillard Government all still appear to be relatively upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy next year which is surprising, since I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about as I review the stock market, housing market or a few other economic indicators.
August 30th, 2012 · 9 Comments
Do Europe’s budget-cutting austerity-minded planners understand simple math? They say they have to embrace austerity policies to reduce excessive national debt. But those policies inevitably cut tax revenues more than they cut spending. National debt increases rather than decreases. Worse, recovery from the economic downturns they create then forces them to ease the original spending cuts. So the national debt situation gets even worse. Japan during its two decades of economic stagnation was the poster-child model for this economic folly in action.
February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments
It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.
January 8th, 2012 · 60 Comments
The ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index finished much lower than I expected in 2011, so this makes me somewhat reluctant to go on record and make an Australian stock market forecast for 2012. However the process of looking at the various economic data and trying to guess where the market will end is a useful one, so foolishly I will outline once again my Australian stock market forecast for the year ahead.
December 7th, 2011 · 34 Comments
The interest rate cut yesterday by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that finally the RBA understands that the Chinese economy will not keep expanding at a rapid rate while its major trading partners are struggling. But even if the Chinese economy slows more than most economists expect this is unlikely to send the global economy back into a GFC-like slump.
July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments
As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.