Entries Tagged as 'interest rates'
November 6th, 2009 · 3 Comments
Have you noticed of late how the Australian stock market is just not listening to the Reserve Bank’s Glenn Stevens? No matter how optimistic the RBA Governor sounds the ASX All Ords refuses to surge past 5000, so what is happening? Are investors wrong about the state of the Australian economy and simply not picking up on the positive economic indicators the RBA is apparently seeing?
October 14th, 2009 · 4 Comments
The Reserve Bank is clearly now back in the mood to fight inflation and the recent decision to rise interest rates confirms that they believe the Australian economy will fare well in 2010. But if their economic outlook is correct, then why haven’t stocks rallied further?
October 2nd, 2009 · 12 Comments
If you were to believe the various ramblings of Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Glenn Stevens and Ken Henry, then you would be under the impression that the Australian economy is about to power ahead in 2010. But if the IMF expects global growth to be slow, why would Australia be set to do any better?
September 23rd, 2009 · 83 Comments
One year has now passed since the failure of Lehman Brothers sent global financial markets plunging and only recently has it felt that the global economy may finally be entering a period of recovery. But will conditions be better or worse in 12 months? Will house prices be higher or lower and where will Australian stocks be in September 2010?
September 10th, 2009 · 3 Comments
Here we are in the dreaded month of September and yet stocks are still on an upward trend. But as each day passes the bulls become more bullish and those suggesting a major correction is due become more adamant that this rally cannot last. So who might be right?
September 8th, 2009 · 3 Comments
According to many reports in the media Australia has escaped a technical recession and the nations future is so bright that we will all have to wear shades. But despite the somewhat upbeat business and financial news of late the reality is that the next few years are going to be very challenging for Australian companies.
September 3rd, 2009 · 6 Comments
It seems that many financial journalists and commentators have decided that Australia has escaped a recession, and that the economy is doing just fine now based on the June Quarter GDP figures that have just been released. But I wonder how many of them looked into the GDP data in detail and spotted the warning signs?
August 18th, 2009 · 8 Comments
Recently Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to be taking credit for everything from the robust nature of the Australian economy to the mining boom. What he seems to have forgotten or is not willing to admit, is that the RBA has made a number of forecasts over the last couple of years that have been very wrong and probably raised interest rates too high in 2008.
August 6th, 2009 · No Comments
A lot of attention has been focused on consumer prices recently as economists try to determine if deflation or inflation is going to be the next challenge for the OECD economies to deal with. On the surface it would seem that due to falling asset prices, unemployment and the decline in personal wealth that this would push many of these economies into a significant period of deflation. But is that really likely to happen?
August 5th, 2009 · 15 Comments
The tentative signs of a global recovery (albeit a weak one) are becoming stronger each day and people who predicted a global depression have faded from view. So the Australian economy is poised for growth again and everything is back on track right? Well not quite.
June 27th, 2009 · 10 Comments
Now that the world seems to have avoided falling into an economic heap, various pundits have switched their attention to life after the global financial crisis. Of course if you spend most of your life saying the world economy is doomed then there has to be a crisis after this current crisis and one scenario being talked about is where many developed nations will enter a period of deflation.
June 2nd, 2009 · 5 Comments
After enduring over a year of falling stock prices we are finally seeing some tentative signs that the stock market is coming back to life. The lows of March 2009 now seem almost a distant memory and as the world’s markets continue to rally more bullish commentators come out of the closet and a few bearish ones crawl into one. But does the current stock market rally have legs?
March 21st, 2009 · 171 Comments
In Part 1 of the Australian home prices debate I looked at some of the factors that could drive home prices down in Australia. Now in Part 2, I shall outline the other side of the debate and consider the arguments that support the view that the Australian residential property market will generally withstand the fallout from the global financial crisis and not follow prices down in a similar way to the U.S. and U.K.
March 19th, 2009 · 337 Comments
One of the most discussed economic topics at the moment in Australia is regarding whether real estate prices are about to plunge across the nation or if Australian residential property will generally be spared from the savage price falls seen in the U.S. and the U.K. Rather than take sides in this debate, I will merely outline some of the arguments being tossed around in newspapers, online forums and blogs etc. and see how well they hold up to scrutiny.
March 15th, 2009 · 53 Comments
Often economists, journalists and politicians use so much jargon when talking about the current economic situation that is is hard to follow what they are actually trying to say. Economists for example cannot seem to agree on anything except that they are legends in their own minds, journalists try and fumble through economic discussions and politicians simply try and convince us they know what they are talking about. The simple fact is much of the time all three groups talk utter rubbish.
March 4th, 2009 · 9 Comments
Can the discussion surrounding the Australian economy get any more bizarre? Will economists continue to make vague observations? Will our politicians spend most of 2009 making nonsensical statements aimed to please the plebs? If you answered yes to all three questions then you are well prepared for the year ahead.