Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Tagged as 'oil'

U.S. Market: What Is Widespread Excessive Optimism Indicating?

August 5th, 2017 · 18 Comments

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data. I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish!

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 60 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

U.S Market: A Top in Place for Oil & SPX?

March 29th, 2016 · 34 Comments

Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the FED Central Banks.  On March 10th, 2016, the ECB surprised the financial world by announcing a much stronger than expected stimulus package. One week later, the FED announced that it would not raise its’ short-term interest rates. It was only three months earlier, back in December of 2015, that they suggested that they would raise rates four times in 2016. It is now my belief, that they will not raise short- term interest ‘materially’ in 2016.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2016

January 29th, 2016 · 68 Comments

Although much of the commentary in the mainstream finance media conveys the impression that the Australian stock market is in the midst of unprecedented correction, the reality is as usual somewhat different.  In fact, considering the rout in commodities prices it’s somewhat surprising that the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 are still around the 5000 level. This suggests to me that the market is probably near a multi-year low and that despite all the pessimism, it’s unlikely to finish the year lower.

Key ASX 200 Sector Indices and the Baltic Dry Index

December 22nd, 2015 · 6 Comments

This year it looks like that at best, the Australian stock market will end at around the same level where it finished in 2014. This is certainly a surprise for those who were getting excited back when the ASX 200 was repeatedly testing 6000 during March – May. The major drags on the market have been China and commodities, both of which I have flagged as major risks for a few years.

Another ASX Market Correction and Remaining Calm

September 3rd, 2015 · 13 Comments

Generally when the stock market enters a phase of volatile trading days I tend to sit back and try to remain calm. Market corrections are normal and come along more frequently than we often seem the recall, but when the volatility passes a new market phase will begin. However this new market phase may not be what we are expecting or hoping for, so as investors we need to be ready to adjust to this new reality.

U.S. Market: 4 Month Forecast – Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds

April 10th, 2015 · 5 Comments

Everyone is looking for the holy grail of the financial market which will tell what will happen next in stocks, commodities, bonds etc… Knowing that the holy grail of trading does not exist I am going to step out on a limb and share my four month stock market forecast along with commodities and bonds.

Shorting the Australian Stock Market, Oil & Soft Commodities

March 17th, 2015 · 16 Comments

So far this year the ASX 200 has been staging a fairly impressive rally having moved from around 5300 points at the start of trading in January to over 5900 in early February. It has since pulled-back a touch but is still up around 10% for the year so there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the outlook for the market for the rest of the year. However I remain cautious about the outlook for Australian shares and the global economy and maintain my view that a significant correction is not far away.

Oil, Commodities & Baltic Dry Index

February 8th, 2015 · 1 Comment

The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

Oil, the Baltic Dry Index and Copper

December 18th, 2014 · 17 Comments

According to the prevailing wisdom of the finance media and it seems most market analysts, the fall in the price of oil has not only been sudden but also unexpected. I suspect much of this has to do with a number of people trying to deflect attention away from their earlier bullish calls and it’s amazing how many market bulls have now morphed into long-term market bears. Unfortunately for them the process has not been a total success and if you look closely, you can still see their horns.

Stock Market Volatility and Weak Global Economic Growth

November 7th, 2014 · 11 Comments

Over the last few weeks I have been simply watching the markets and have not even attempted to analyse the various swings and moves of the ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index.  Just when I thought I might have been able to make sense out of what was happening, along would come news of the IMF cutting their global growth forecast, more mixed economic news out of China or recently and almost out of nowhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sprung into back action and ramped up its version of Quantitative Easing (QE).

U.S. Market: SP500 ETF Trading Strategies & Plan of Attack

April 1st, 2014 · No Comments

Stocks have kick started this week with a 0.85% pop in price but the big question is if the market can hold up. Last week stocks repeatedly gap higher and sold off with strong volume telling us that institutions are slowing phasing out of stocks (distribution selling) unloading shares into strength and passing them onto the a average investor to be left holding bag.

U.S. Market Update: The Stock Market Holiday Bulge – Prepare for Selling

December 30th, 2013 · 6 Comments

So far this year (2013) has been a great year for trading and my 2014 forecast looks to be as good if not even better. I do have something exciting to share with you that is going to make 2014 really amazing, but first let me talk about the stock market and what is likely to unfold in the next week or two so you can protect your investments.

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