Entries Tagged as 'recession'
Economics of austerity don’t add up
August 30th, 2012 · 9 Comments
Do Europe’s budget-cutting austerity-minded planners understand simple math? They say they have to embrace austerity policies to reduce excessive national debt. But those policies inevitably cut tax revenues more than they cut spending. National debt increases rather than decreases. Worse, recovery from the economic downturns they create then forces them to ease the original spending cuts. So the national debt situation gets even worse. Japan during its two decades of economic stagnation was the poster-child model for this economic folly in action.
Why the U.S. Dollar is Critical for the S&P 500 Index this Week.
April 30th, 2012 · 4 Comments
Unfortunately I was sick the past few weeks and I am just now getting back into the swing of things. Similar to the demand pull that the warmer than usual spring has had on macroeconomic data, the warmer spring caused me to have an earlier than usual sinus infection as well as some horrific allergies. I suppose I am pushing it a bit far when I am comparing my health concerns to economic data, but alas I fly my nerd flag proudly.
Stock Charts Review: DJS, HVN, WOW & DMP.
March 19th, 2012 · 4 Comments
An extended stock market market downturn such as the one we are experiencing now provides long term investors with an opportunity to gauge how well companies have been able to deal with harsh economic conditions. So today let’s have a look at four consumer spending related Australian listed companies and see how they have fared over the last five years.
Where is the Australian Economy heading in 2012?
February 3rd, 2012 · 19 Comments
It wasn’t that long ago when ex-Treasury Head Ken Henry talked about the Australian economy being in a ‘Golden Age’. I guess when you can retire on a lucrative public service pension and then parachute into a highly paid job as an advisor to the Prime Minister the future does probably seem bright. But now in early 2012 as unemployment appears set to rise and the economy is showing signs of weakness, Ken Henry’s ‘Golden Age’ comment might end up in the same category as Tim Flannery’s ‘Dams will no longer fill’ prediction.
Australian stock market outlook & forecast for 2012
January 8th, 2012 · 60 Comments
The ASX All Ordinaries Index and S&P/ASX 200 Index finished much lower than I expected in 2011, so this makes me somewhat reluctant to go on record and make an Australian stock market forecast for 2012. However the process of looking at the various economic data and trying to guess where the market will end is a useful one, so foolishly I will outline once again my Australian stock market forecast for the year ahead.
The Global Financial Crisis, the G-20 & S&P/ASX 200 Index.
November 5th, 2011 · 13 Comments
The continuing debt crisis in Europe is a reminder to investors that we are still in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) which first gripped the markets back in 2008. The G20′s first cunning plan to spend their way out of trouble didn’t do much to fix the root causes of the GFC and so they are gathered once again for another talkfest which at best, might give the markets a kick upwards for a few days.
Japan’s economic morality play.
October 26th, 2011 · 3 Comments
World attention focuses on the problems of the Greek economy — no doubt with a large helping of schadenfreude added: There, but for the grace of God, go the rest of us is the thought.
The stampede towards global economic pessimism
September 13th, 2011 · 30 Comments
A sure sign that an economic trend has been established is when the OECD finally jumps on the trend bandwagon and recently the OECD has joined the group of recently converted economic pessimists. Gone are the days when big borrowing, big spending governments would save the day – the theme of the day now is hang onto your hats because we might be in for a bumpy ride.
Recession watch and the Reserve Bank of Australia awakens
July 6th, 2011 · 24 Comments
As each week passes the moans of struggling businesses grow louder and finally it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members have woken up to the fact that the economy has been sliding backwards since late 2010. Once again the RBA had made a tactical blunder and raised rates too high just as they did as the global financial crisis was unfolding back in late 2007.
The Australian economy, the Twilight Zone and known unknowns
June 20th, 2011 · 14 Comments
On a daily basis, dozens of finance and business journalists try to convince the general public that they somehow have an insight into what the Australian economy is doing or how the economy will fare over the next six months or so. But the truth is, nobody has a clue what will happen for the rest of this year as we are still stuck in the Economic Twilight Zone.
Has the Australian economy peaked?
May 31st, 2011 · 16 Comments
Last year when I dared to suggest that the Australian economy was unbalanced and that 2011-2012 could be a period of economic contraction the mainstream financial reporters were churning out “miracle” economy stories. Back then they were obsessed with telling their readers how the mining boom would shower riches across the Great Southern Land, but today many of them have started to sound a lot more cautious.
Swan’s lazy 2011 budget and Australian economic madness.
May 16th, 2011 · 6 Comments
On budget night Wayne Swan could have saved us all a lot of time by simply standing up and saying that his plan for the Australian economy was to simply sit back and hope the mining boom continued. As I have said for over a year now, Australian policy makers have set the economy up for a severe downturn if commodities prices slump and there is no Plan B.
A contrarian view of how ‘austerity’ bleeds Japan
March 4th, 2011 · 9 Comments
With the Standard and Poor’s downgrading of Japan’s long-term credit rating from AA to AA minus, the focus even more is on how the economy can get out of its current deflationary quagmire.
