Shareswatch Australia

Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Entries Tagged as 'recession'

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 60 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

Dealing with ASX Market Fatigue

May 6th, 2016 · 4 Comments

Without doubt it’s been a tough few years for Australian share market investors. At times there have been signs of hope and in early 2015 the S&P/ASX 200 and ASX All Ordinaries briefly edged near 6000. There was also a glimmer of hope that the market would bounce back strongly after the GFC when the market rallied towards 5000 after nearly crashing to 3000 in 2008. Those were not pleasant days to be holding long positions but at least something was happening. At the beginning of 201o the ASX All Ordinaries Index was around 4800 – today it’s at around 5200 – which means that in just over 6 years the market has risen a paltry 400 points.

FY 2014-2015 ASX Charts Review

June 30th, 2015 · 13 Comments

Well another financial year has come to an end and for the Australian stock market it has been a fairly poor FY2014-2015, but if you include dividends an average balanced stocks portfolio could have probably returned 3-4% in dividends which in the era of low interest rates is not too bad. However the reality is that the Australian stock market is under-performing markets in Japan, the US and many in Europe – not to mention Chinese stocks which surged skywards during the past year but now look like they are currently falling back to earth.

The ASX 200 – On a Road to Nowhere

May 8th, 2015 · 20 Comments

This week we have seen the S&P/ASX 200 bounce around quite a bit, but generally speaking the trend of late has been back down towards 5600. This movement has probably surprised some investors especially those who were quite bullish just some weeks ago when the ASX 200 appeared poised to rally past the 6000 level.

Oil, Commodities & Baltic Dry Index

February 8th, 2015 · 1 Comment

The long expected commodities sell-off is still a work in progress with many of the commodities bulls from just a year or so ago now covering their tracks by making ultra-bearish predictions. But let’s bypass the usual hype in the mainstream finance media and focus on some trends and commodity price charts to see if there are any signs the correction may be easing.

Greece versus The Troika: A Modern Greek Tragedy

February 1st, 2015 · 16 Comments

The recent election in Greece which resulted in the Syriza Party being swept into power has once again put the spotlight on the struggling Eurozone. In isolation, the election of a left wing anti-austerity party in Greece would appear to be no more than a nuisance for markets beyond Europe. But I believe that there is a lot more at stake than just simply a stand-off between the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the ECB, IMF and EU which are collectively known as the Troika creditors.

2013 Federal Election, All Ordinaries & Stock Market Outlook

September 8th, 2013 · 3 Comments

Well it’s over at last – the end of what has essentially been a three year election campaign in Australia and hopefully also the end of political instability; but that may be asking for too much. Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd will now get on with doing what he does best what he does best – sulk in a corner and the Australian stock market will probably not do a lot.

Has the Australian Economy entered a period of long term decline?

August 13th, 2013 · 22 Comments

There has been a lot of noise about the Australian economy of late due to the federal election campaign, and most likely much of what is talked about by politicians is not worth paying much attention to. For investors the bigger and more important issues are related to if the Australian economy is in long term decline or is the economy simply heading through a short term rough patch.

While the Fed Parties, Gold & Oil Have Left the Building

June 18th, 2013 · 14 Comments

Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.

For the Australian stock market, moving sideways may be a good outcome.

June 10th, 2013 · 12 Comments

Over the last few years I have written on several occasions about how the Australian stock market has essentially moved sideways and how I expected both the All Ordinaries Index and ASX S&P/ASX 200 to both bounce around between 4800 – 5200.  Even when the market bulls got excited recently as the 5200 level was briefly breached, I maintained my long held view that the market is trading in a recession like zone.

Japan’s leaders must see the need for sustaining a fiscal Big Bang

February 1st, 2013 · 4 Comments

With Japan’s stock market surging even before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe unveiled his plans for economic stimulus, we would have expected the usual anti-stimulus critics to be silent, at least for a while. But no. Already we hear the usual complaints — more printing of money, more public debt, more baramake (waste) and so on.

Australian stock market outlook & forecast for 2013

January 8th, 2013 · 40 Comments

Once again it is time to dust off the crystal ball, stick a finger in the air and toss some chicken bones over my shoulder in a vain attempt to forecast what the Australian stock market will do in 2013.  Last year the ASX All Ordinaries and S&P/ASX 200 posted respectable gains, but will they do so again this year?

Why the S&P 500 & Gold Rallied in the Face of Negative News

November 26th, 2012 · 1 Comment

The amount of negative news that we have seen recently has been mind-blowing. Europe is going into recession, Greece and several other countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, the Middle East is a powder-keg, and the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff. Shockingly for most retail traders, the past week has produced a very strong return for U.S. equity indexes as well as risk assets in general.

Economics of austerity don’t add up

August 30th, 2012 · 9 Comments

Do Europe’s budget-cutting austerity-minded planners understand simple math? They say they have to embrace austerity policies to reduce excessive national debt. But those policies inevitably cut tax revenues more than they cut spending. National debt increases rather than decreases. Worse, recovery from the economic downturns they create then forces them to ease the original spending cuts. So the national debt situation gets even worse. Japan during its two decades of economic stagnation was the poster-child model for this economic folly in action.

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