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Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, analysis & market forecasts.

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Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 60 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

Trump, resources and an ASX market rally

December 20th, 2016 · 6 Comments

The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.

The Australian Stock Market is Struggling

October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments

Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.

Key ASX 200 Sector Indices and the Baltic Dry Index

December 22nd, 2015 · 6 Comments

This year it looks like that at best, the Australian stock market will end at around the same level where it finished in 2014. This is certainly a surprise for those who were getting excited back when the ASX 200 was repeatedly testing 6000 during March – May. The major drags on the market have been China and commodities, both of which I have flagged as major risks for a few years.

The ASX 200 – A Longer Term Perspective

November 19th, 2015 · 23 Comments

As I have written before, it’s important during a stock market correction not to get influenced by sensational articles in the news media about market crashes and comparisons to past market slumps going all the way back to the 1920’s which are after all, basically irrelevant. The only thing that really concerns investors now is what will happen to the Australia stock market going forward, and the most likely outcome is that over the longer term it will trend upwards.

ASX Blue Chip Stocks – A Time to Buy?

October 1st, 2015 · 4 Comments

There comes a point during any major stock market correction when many investors (myself included) think about buying into leading companies whose shares have fallen during the stock market sell-off. The theory is that blue-chip stocks offer good value around the bottom of a market correction and that they will provide a healthy return to investors who are patient enough to wait for the stock market to recover.

U.S. Market: Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments

March 3rd, 2015 · No Comments

Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants.  So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.

2014 ASX Stock Market Charts Review

January 7th, 2015 · 4 Comments

Overall the Australian stock market ended 2014 basically where it started which taking into account the slide in commodities prices, was actually a good outcome. However if we scratch under the surface a little and look beyond the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (All Ords) we can see why the market held ground in 2014 and perhaps gain an insight to what may happen in 2015.

A Drifting Economy and a Stock Market Correction

September 23rd, 2014 · 6 Comments

Currently the Australian stock market is in the midst of a correction along with markets in Europe, Asia and the U.S.  How much longer this correction will last nobody can say for sure but for the Australian economy and stock market the signs are not good. Meanwhile it’s becoming clearer that the Chinese economy is struggling to maintain growth of around 7.5% and it may be that the era of stellar GDP growth in China is coming to an end.

ASX Market Indices Charts Review: XJO, XMM, XFJ, XNJ & XGD

March 19th, 2014 · 21 Comments

Over the last few months the Australian stock market has moved without any real conviction and appears to have settled within a range between 5100 and 5450. There has been no clear breakout towards 6000 nor has a major correction taken the market down to what I would describe as a buying range.  At this stage it appears difficult to spot any clear trend by looking at the ASX All Ords Index and/or S&P/ASX 200 so I will go one level lower, and look at some key sector ASX Market Indices.

Short Term ASX Market Outlook & Trading Strategy Update

February 24th, 2014 · 6 Comments

Over the last couple of weeks the Australian stock market has been on the rise with the ASX All Ordinaries & S&P/ASX 200 heading towards 5500. As a result there is now much talk about a bull market and of investors chasing yield which for me, is simply background noise. What I am really interested in is trying to understand if the market is set to keep rising or if it’s time to adopt a defensive strategy for the time being.

2013 ASX Stock Market Charts Review

January 13th, 2014 · 5 Comments

By the end of 2013 the ASX All Ordinaries Index (XAO) & S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) both gained around 15% which was a healthy above average annual gain with the long term return for stocks being around 10%. But we need to keep the 2013 gains in perspective and not get carried away by some of the media hype and excitable comments being made by fund managers & analysts etc.

The Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio: November 2013

November 12th, 2013 · 9 Comments

A lot has happened since the last review of the Shareswatch Random Stocks Portfolio in January with the S&P/ASX having risen from just under 4800 to around 5400. That’s a gain of about 12% so it would not be unreasonable to expect the portfolio to have also posted a good gain over the same period.

‘Happy go lucky’ Australia now adrift in Asia

August 23rd, 2013 · 3 Comments

Australians used to call themselves “the lucky country,” after the title of a 1960s’ best-seller saying how farming wealth had allowed Australia to create a stable, prosperous and fairly egalitarian society.  But today’s minerals wealth seems to have worked in reverse, to create a nation prone to quick fixes, whimsical political changes, flip-flop foreign policies and crazy economic strategies. From the sober lucky country we move to the feckless happy-go-lucky country.

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