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Australian stock market investing, ASX charts, market analysis & stock market forecasts.

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Entries Categorised as 'Stockmarket'

The Australian stock market, Covid-19 and dealing with uncertainty

July 13th, 2020 · 2 Comments

Back in March as the world markets were in the midst of the Covid-19 triggered sell-off I suggested that investors remain calm. I also suggested in my article at that time that the S&P/ASX 200 Index would not fall much below 5000 and would probably recover back up towards the long term trend. As I write today both of those guesses have proven to be correct, but that’s more a case of good luck rather than any ability to predict the future.

The ASX 200 – a long term view

January 21st, 2019 · 2 Comments

During the last month or so the global markets have been on quite a ride. The United States – China trade dispute and the UK’s pending exit from the European Union (EU) has been identified by much of the mainstream media as the main causes for sending major stock markets lower. These have also been flagged by much of the finance media in Australia as reasons why the Australian stock market has fallen back, along with other factors notably the banking royal commission & falling home prices. Yes all these will influence stock prices to varying extents, but in regards to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX 200) – it’s more of a case of just more of the same.

ASX 200 Index – Below 6,000 Again

October 16th, 2018 · 3 Comments

During the last few months I have not written anything about the Australian stock market since there didn’t really seem to be much to write about. As I mentioned at the start of the year, I was not optimistic about the outlook for the S&P/ASX 200 range of stocks and I haven’t even bothered to make a prediction where the ASX 200 Index might finish in 2018. As usual many in the mainstream finance media and assorted podcasters got very excited when the ASX 200 moved past 6,000 recently. But as sure and night follows day it’s back below that level once again.

Oil, Telstra, Macquarie & the ASX 200

June 1st, 2018 · 16 Comments

Earlier this year there was quite a bit of excitement amongst many market watchers as the S&P/ASX 200 had settled above 6000 after a rallying from just over 5,500 in October 2017. The mainstream finance media were as usual generating click-bait content that conveyed the impression that the market was in the midst of an almost unstoppable rally. However I wasn’t convinced that the Australian stock market was set to finally get back to the level it was 10 years ago and for the last few months I have been just watching the market basically go nowhere.

Will the Australian Stock Market Rally Continue?

January 9th, 2018 · 47 Comments

Late in 2017 I was prepared for a significant market correction and not only did this not happen, but instead the market finished the year strongly. Rather than the S&P/ASX 200 Index falling back towards 5500 it actually pushed and held above 6000 for reasons I’m not sure are based on market fundamentals.  So what happens from here?  Will the market rally keep pushing the ASX 200 higher over the next few months or will a correction bring it below 6000 again. Of course there is no way to be sure what will happen, but let me lay out some thoughts on what might happen.

S&P/ASX 200 – 10 Years of Much Ado About Nothing

September 19th, 2017 · 20 Comments

Ten years ago the Australian stock market was at an all time high with the S&P/ASX 200 Index at around 6,500. Just a few months later however the  the global financial crisis played havoc with the markets and the ASX 200 slumped to around 3000. But even during those darkest days I did not imagine that a decade later the Australian stock market would still be below 6000.  Yes the mainstream finance media might excitedly churn out eye-catching headlines every time there is a minor rally or correction, but the sobering reality is that during most of the last 10 years the Australian stock market has done very little.

Australian Stock Market Outlook & Forecast for 2017

April 3rd, 2017 · 64 Comments

Each year I outline how I think the Australian Stock Market might fare bearing in mind that my forecast, like all forecasts, is actually a calculated guesstimate – at best. None of us know with any certainty how the financial markets will ride out the year and it’s probably a safe assumption that anyone that implies that they do is either trying to sell you a book or website subscription. But a forecast can be a useful planning exercise even if it simply makes us think of the factors that might move the markets. So once again I will go out on a limb and add my forecast to the galaxy of other forecasts.

Trump, resources and an ASX market rally

December 20th, 2016 · 6 Comments

The U.S. election result has thrown another Brexit event at the markets and once again the markets have done and are doing the opposite of what many experts predicted. I did not focus on the U.S, election in too much detail and expected any post election rally or sell-off to be short-lived. However just as the sky never fell when voters in the U.K. decided to leave the European Union it’s has remained in place after the surprising win by Donald Trump. The biggest surprise though is that the so called “Trump Rally” keeps on going and so far, the Australian stock market seems to be following the lead and since early November has staged a fairly strong rally also.

The Australian Stock Market is Struggling

October 31st, 2016 · 30 Comments

Although many commentators in the finance media have found reasons to write excitedly about the Australian stock market during the last two months I have been unable to do so. Yes some ASX listed shares have risen sharply in price and profits have been there for some investors, but overall it’s been a very dull and boring few months apart from a correction that I wrote about at the end of August.

Australian Stock Market Set for a Pull-Back

August 31st, 2016 · 24 Comments

The last couple of months have been eventful for the Australian stock market. First, for reasons unknown, it was was moved by the Brexit referendum result and then as the 2016 Australian Federal Election saga slowly unfolded the market really didn’t do much at all, even-though Malcolm Turnbull almost managed to lose all the seats Tony Abbott had won for the coalition parties in the previous election. Despite these events however the S&P/ASX has gained ground and has edged up to around the 5400-5600 range…again.


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